The COVID 19 pandemic may feel like it is well in the past, but its effects on students are still unfolding. Only now are we seeing enough data to understand the long-term consequences. That data paints a bleak prognosis for graduation rates across the country.

The good news is that by understanding how we got here and how students who have disengaged are being successfully reconnected to school, we can ensure that more young people leave high school with a diploma and a real opportunity.

How Did We Get Here?

The recent decline in graduation rates represents a reversal of years of progress. Beginning early in the 2010s we saw dropout rates falling consistently for about six years. By 2019, the percentage of eligible young people who had not graduated and were not enrolled in any school, fell to 5.1 percent, a significant drop from the 7 percent rate in 2012. Since that 2019 low point, rates have stalled or begun to rise, even before fully accounting for the thousands of students who disappeared during remote learning and never returned.

Since pandemic-related distance learning, we have seen a significant, though not huge, down tick in graduation rates among students who returned to school, lower average proficiency, and more persistent learning gaps. Perhaps most devastatingly, we have also seen surges in chronic absenteeism.

Chronic absenteeism is one of the biggest predictors of eventual disengagement. What we are seeing now is likely only the visible portion of a much larger problem. Many middle and high school students never formally returned when schools reopened. Because they were never re-enrolled, they are not counted in attendance or dropout statistics at all.

It is true that we’ve made some positive progress. There’s been a period of rapid innovation as states created new opportunities and multiple pathways to graduation. However, we – and I mean the education system collectively – are still failing at least one in 20 students. That is unacceptable.

Why Graduation Matters

There are significant individual and social economic costs when students fail to graduate, and the consequences are severe and long-lasting.

We live in a credential-based economy. A high school diploma is the gateway to stable employment, career advancement, higher education, and nearly all forms of postsecondary training. Even excellent apprenticeship programs, including those in Oregon, where I live, require a diploma for entry. Without one, young people are often locked into low-wage jobs with little chance for upward mobility.

Lost potential isn’t limited to the individual. Without a diploma, individuals earn less than their peers, which means they are less able to contribute to society through taxes. Approximately half of Americans receiving public services did not receive a high school diploma and they are more likely to have negative health outcomes. They are also more likely to end up in prison.

Economic analyses of educational attainment show that these patterns carry real costs for taxpayers. Research on the lifetime public costs associated with dropping out of high school estimates that each additional graduate reduces taxpayer expenditures by roughly $60,000–$70,000, primarily through lower use of public assistance, health care, and criminal justice systems. Additional research, such as that from Northeastern University’s Center for Labor Market Studies, finds that high school graduates contribute approximately $292,000 more in lifetime tax revenue than individuals who do not complete high school.

These effects compound across generations. Children of parents without diplomas are far less likely to graduate themselves, perpetuating cycles of lost opportunity.

Who Are the Students We Are Losing?

The students we're failing aren’t always those you might expect. Many students who will eventually leave school may not appear to be in trouble at all. I work with an organization that partners with local school districts to reengage and graduate students who have disengaged from traditional school. Sixty percent of the students we enroll were passing all their courses when they disappeared from classes. Academically they were fine, but something about the structure of school wasn't working for them.

As an example, Briauna and Tiauna Black were earning excellent grades and played on the varsity basketball team when tragedy struck. Their mother's health worsened to the point that she needed around-the-clock care and the girls were the ones to provide it. By enrolling in a hybrid alternative program offered through their district, the twin sisters were able to provide that care and still attend classes and earn diplomas. They needed a much more flexible schedule than the traditional school could provide. Thankfully, they found an alternative pathway and today they both work as medical assistants while pursuing bachelors degrees at Grand Canyon University.

We see students who are perfectly capable of passing their classes and eager to put in the effort, but instead they have to work to contribute to their household. We see students experiencing housing instability, or who have children of their own. We’ve had students with chronic illnesses, or any number of other challenging life circumstances.

We also see a number of students who struggle with anxiety or depression, particularly since the pandemic. For them, long days in crowded hallways and classrooms are overwhelming. No one learns well in places that make them feel unsafe or unseen.

Offering them a more personalized environment with fewer distractions and social pressures is often all it takes to allow them to thrive.

Re-Engagement Begins with Listening

This may not be the most scientific way to put it, but the most effective way to reengage students is to focus on loving them as individuals. The most effective re-engagement strategy is also the simplest: treat students as people.

Students who disengage often believe the system has failed them. Rebuilding trust begins with relationships. We ask what barriers exist. Is transportation the issue? Scheduling? Childcare? Health? Motivation? A single caring adult who makes the phone call, sends the text, or knocks on the door often changes everything.

The question is not Why did you leave? The questions are: What do you need to come back? What’s preventing you from being here today?

Give Students Early Wins

Returning after months or years away is daunting. Students frequently doubt their academic ability and carry deep shame. We celebrate the decision to return as the major achievement it is.

Build experiences that are flexible. Allowing students to take just one class at a time – completing it in a matter of weeks rather than months – can give them an early win, making the whole process feel more manageable. Help them stack up those wins one at a time. These early wins rebuild confidence and momentum. Many students graduate as quickly as their peers in traditional programs.

The Responsibility is Ours

Disengagement is not a student problem. It is a system problem.

We must listen to students and families with open hearts because their needs are complex and deeply human. The responsibility to adapt belongs to us.

When we choose to lead with care, flexibility, and trust, we do not just improve graduation rates. We restore futures.

About the author

Abby Andres, Ph.D. is an education policy expert and systems strategist with over 20 years of experience spanning K–16 education, research, and ed-tech. She has led innovation in technology, assessment, and accountability at both the state and national levels. She holds a Ph.D. in Political Science with a focus on U.S. public education policy.